The Effects of Exchange Rate on Sunflower Seed Exports in Turkey: ARDL Bound Test


Senyelli C., ATAKİŞİ A.

Helia, cilt.48, sa.82, ss.40-50, 2025 (Scopus) identifier

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Cilt numarası: 48 Sayı: 82
  • Basım Tarihi: 2025
  • Doi Numarası: 10.29329/helia.2025.1334.3
  • Dergi Adı: Helia
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Scopus
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.40-50
  • Anahtar Kelimeler: ARDL, Exchange Rate, Export, Sunflower Seed
  • Trakya Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

Although sunflower seed can be easily grown in many regions of Turkey due to its high adaptability, the deficit caused by insufficient production is covered by imports. When the exchange rate and oil prices rise, the prices of these products increase in Turkey, which has been an importer of oilseeds and vegetable oils for many years. In addition, sunflower, which can be grown in many regions of Turkey, contributes to Turkey's agricultural sector and sunflower seed exports are an important part of crop exports. In this study, monthly Turkish sunflower seed exports and exchange rate data for the period 2017-2023 are analysed using the ARDL bounds test method in accordance with the information obtained from the Turkish Statistical Institute and the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey. According to the findings, a statistically significant correlation exists between the exchange rate and sunflower seed exports, with a 1% rise in the dollar in the long term resulting in a 0,30% increase in sunflower seed exports. Meanwhile, in the short term, 62% of the impact of a shock is absorbed and reaches equilibrium over the long term.