Unemployment hysteresis and convergence in the Eurozone: evidence from eight selected economies
Quality and Quantity, 2026 (Scopus)
- Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
- Basım Tarihi: 2026
- Doi Numarası: 10.1007/s11135-026-03072-7
- Dergi Adı: Quality and Quantity
- Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Scopus, IBZ Online, ABI/INFORM, Index Islamicus, Political Science Complete, Psycinfo, Political Science Abstract (IPSA), Social Science Premium Collection (ProQuest), Health Research Premium Collection (ProQuest), Sociology Database (ProQuest), Sociology Source Ultimate (EBSCO)
- Anahtar Kelimeler: Eurozone, Fourier unit root tests, Unemployment convergence, Unemployment hysteresis
- Trakya Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet
Özet
This study examines unemployment hysteresis and cross-country convergence in eight Eurozone economies, Belgium, Finland, France, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal, and Spain, over 1988M1–2026M2. The hysteresis question is assessed using four complementary Fourier-type tests that differ in both the direction of the null hypothesis and the assumed form of adjustment: the Fourier-KPSS stationarity test and the nonlinear Fourier-KSS, Fourier-Sollis, and Fourier-Kruse unit-root tests. Three country groups emerge: Finland, the Netherlands, Portugal, and Spain exhibit hysteresis; Italy is stationary under all four tests; and Belgium, France, and Ireland display nonlinear mean reversion detectable only under nonlinear specifications. Prior work has typically examined hysteresis and convergence separately, and most hysteresis tests rest on a single specification whose assumptions drive the conclusion. This study applies four tests with different null hypotheses and adjustment structures to each country individually, then connects the country-level results to a convergence analysis in which nonlinearity is tested rather than assumed. Convergence is examined using the Fourier threshold unit-root (Fourier-TUR) framework of Yilanci et al. (2022). The linearity null cannot be rejected, so the linear Fourier-TUR model is adopted. Unemployment differentials converge absolutely, with an estimated half-life of approximately 44 months. Country-level persistence and union-level convergence coexist: shocks can become structural in some members while cross-country gaps still close over time.